A new simulation created by CoreLogic NZ shows just how much the Auckland housing market has changed over the last decade and a half.
The simulation charts a steep decline in the number of Auckland suburbs with affordable property and indicates the scale of the challenge faced by the Government in solving the housing crisis.
Each coloured dot in the simulation represents a 2.2sq km area of the city where the median house value is less than $650,000 - the upper of limit of an affordable house under the new KiwiBuild scheme.
The darker the dot the closer the area's median value is to $650,000.
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At the start of the simulation, in January 2004, much of the city is covered in yellow and green dots, showing the large volume of "affordable" properties the city had to offer.
As time progresses, the dots quickly turn dark red, and then disappear as median values shoot pass $650,000.
The simulation clearly shows the sharp rise in property values in Auckland during the boom. The dots ripple out from the inner city, and by the end there is only a handful of locations, scattered around the edges of the city, with median property values of $650,000 and no areas with median values of half a million dollars.
Nick Goodall, head of research at CoreLogic NZ, says: "The simulation shows Auckland's property market starting to pick up at the start of 2012.
"From then, values increase at a rapid rate. The fact that there are so few 'affordable' areas at the end of the simulation illustrates the challenge KiwiBuild has got for itself."
He adds: “Visualising the data this way shows the challenge the whole property industry faces in ensuring there are properties across the value spectrum for prospective buyers. We can also see more granularly how property values vary within a suburb, which is useful market insight for buyers, sellers and industry players alike.”
The majority of suburbs have a median value of close to or just over $1 million, with several inner city suburbs boasting a median value of around $2 million.
Construction of the first KiwiBuild homes is due to be completed next month.
The new homes are being constructed in the Papakura-Takanini area, in South Auckland. They are the first tranche of the 100,000 affordable high-quality homes that the Government has pledged to build over the next decade.
The homes are being built on the McLennan estate, 24ha of ex-Defence Force land owned by Housing NZ Corporation, about 30km from Auckland's CBD.
The houses under construction are a mixture of two-bedroom homes (selling for for $499,000), three-bedroom homes ($579,000) and four-bedroom homes ($649,000).
CoreLogic's simulation has been released as part of its new interactive Mapping the Market tool, which it hopes will help ease pressure on those struggling to locate homes within their budget.
Mr Goodall says: “We analysed five year trends in median property values across NZ, comparing median property values at the end of May 2018 to May 2013.
“The tool gives people an instant snapshot of the nation’s property values and shows how values have trended over the past five years."
