Auckland, Christchurch, Wellington and Hamilton still top New Zealand's population rankings, but fifth place now goes to Tauranga instead of Dunedin.
But just because these six main centres are the biggest, they’re not necessarily always the most interesting (or indicative) in terms of property dynamics ... which is exactly where Queenstown comes in.
Population growth is a key influencer on residential property demand and values, so it’s a good time to quickly run through the numbers.
The table below shows the current* top 10 population bases, and their growth over the past decade. Auckland, Christchurch, Wellington and Hamilton remain first, second, third and fourth, but Tauranga has now overtaken Dunedin to move into fifth place.
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Whangarei has also overtaken Palmerston North to move into eighth place, while New Plymouth has entered the top 10 at Hasting’s expense. The fastest population increases amongst the top 10 since 2007 have been in the so-called "Golden Triangle" of Hamilton (20.8 percent), Tauranga (20.3 percent) and Auckland (19.2 percent).
Auckland’s sheer size means it has played a defining role in New Zealand’s overall population growth. From 1997 to 2017, the country's population increased by 27 percent, or 1.01m people (from 3.78m to 4.79m). Auckland was responsible for more than half of that rise, with a population increase from 1.15m in 1997 to 1.66m in 2017, which means it’s home to an impressive 35 percent of New Zealand’s total population.
As we all know, immigration has been a big part of recent population growth in Auckland. But as the first graph shows, it’s also been very significant in Christchurch, Wellington and Dunedin.
The six "main centres" are regularly chosen for examination because they are the six biggest population bases. But this doesn’t necessarily mean that Auckland, Christchurch, Wellington, Hamilton, Tauranga and Dunedin are always the most interesting, or even the most influential for property dynamics.
Indeed, CoreLogic data shows that although Tauranga has fewer people than Hamilton, its property stock is worth about $6bn more. The contrast is even starker in Queenstown and Dunedin. Queenstown’s population of 37,100 is less than a third the size of Dunedin’s, but the value of its property ($21.9bn) is about $2bn higher.
Of course, Queenstown’s property market is often referred to as having its own "micro-climate", with investors (many with plenty of equity behind them) dominating activity in an expensive area.
Across New Zealand as whole, multiple property owners (MPOs) with a mortgage have accounted for 23 percent of purchases in the past year, with MPO cash purchases accounting for another 13 percent - a total to investors of 36 percent. In Queenstown, MPO mortgage purchases are at 28 percent, with MPO cash accounting for 23 percent, equating to a total of 51 percent.
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Kelvin Davidson is senior researcher at CoreLogic NZ
