Across Australia, house prices are in free fall, with prices tumbling an average of 7.99 per cent across Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth by the end of February 2019.
But there's a city in Australia where it’s a different story. Prices in Tasmania are growing 7.17 per cent in the same period, according to the latest CoreLogic RP Data.
So why is Hobart bucking the national trend?
Propertyology managing director Simon Pressley says Tasmania’s growing reputation as a clean, green tourism hotspot with good food and wine made it attractive to a wide range of people from other states looking for a change.
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“Tasmania has been a very healthy property market for the last 12 months — there isn’t a location anywhere in Australia that’s performed better than Hobart in the last three-and-a-bit years,” he says.
Affordable housing has also made Tasmania popular, especially to younger people who are being driven out of other major cities by sky-high prices, which remain unaffordable despite recent price slumps. Core Logic recently calculated it took 12.1 years of household income to save a 20 per cent house deposit in Sydney compared with 8.1 years in Hobart.
“There has been a significant number of 25-29 year olds moving out of cities. They are particularly leaving Sydney — there has been a real shift,” University of Tasmania demographer Dr Lisa Denny says.
A strong job market is another reason Tasmania is experiencing an influx of people. The Demographic Group managing director Bernard Salt says people will always to move to regional lifestyle spots that offer job security, and Tasmania is “fashionable”.
Statistician Charlie Nelson says there is another reason people are flocking to Tasmania — climate change.
“Climate change has the potential to influence residential property values,” he says.
“For each one degree Celsius rise in recent temperatures, net migration to Tasmania increases by 2900 per year.”
Dr Denny also has anecdotal evidence that hotter and more unpredictable weather is prompting people to move to Tasmania, a reversal of the traditional Australian trend of migrating north to tropical Queensland.
She is intrigued by the link to climate change but says more research is needed.
“At first glance, Charlie’s numbers appear to show a statistical relationship, and it’s worthy of further research,” Dr Denny says.
CoreLogic head of research Tim Lawless has also noticed climate change is a growing concern for homebuyers but says it is not yet a real consideration for most Australians.
“The majority of people are willing to put climate change concerns at the back of their mind and choose lifestyle factors over global warming,” he says.
University of South Australia Business School Dean of Research and Innovation Andrew Beer says people will continue to move to Tasmania for climate change and lifestyle reasons.
“Every time there’s a drought, people really begin to focus on the issue of climate change again,” he says.
“It (Tasmania) is a safe haven for Australia, with lots of wonderful untouched places and affordable housing.”
— news.com.au
