Population growth counts when it comes to New Zealand house prices - except in Canterbury.
The two regions that experienced the biggest population spurts since 2013 - Queenstown-Lakes and Selwyn districts - had widely diverging property markets.
The results of the 2018 Census show Queenstown-Lakes' population grew 38.7 percent to 39,153, while figures from OneRoof and its data partner Valocity show house prices in the region rose 80.7 percent during the same period to $985,000 - one of the biggest leaps in the country.
Selwyn District's population rose 35.8 percent to 60,561, but the surge had little or no effect on house prices, with Selwyn's median property value up just 8 percent to $595,000 in the last five years.
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Most regions that saw big increases in population also saw big lifts in house prices, with the correlation particularly noticeable in Auckland and neighbouring regions and cities.
Stats NZ census general manager Kathy Connolly said the census counts indicated that 60.9 percent of New Zealand's population growth since 2013 was in the four northernmost regions - Northland, Auckland, Waikato and Bay of Plenty - and that these regions accounted for more than half of New Zealand's population.
House prices in these regions rose between 41 percent and 98.6 percent.
Valocity director of valuation James Wilson says: “Strong population growth in these areas means house value growth is better supported and more sustainable, as opposed to a ‘bubble’ purely inflated by out of area investment."
Wilson says population growth played a major part in Queenstown-Lakes' booming property and rental market, but so too has supply issues, with constraints on the number of available homes all serving to push prices up in the region.
He says different dynamics are at play in Selwyn. "The area hasn't been plagued by the same supply constraints as Queenstown. There also appears to be a strong rental market in the region, which indicates that a large portion of the population growth may be people moving into the location to rent, but not immediately buying their own property. The net result of this is an increase in population growth but not house values.”
House prices in neighbouring Christchurch also barely changed since the 2013 census, up just 4.8 percent to $440,000, but that can be explained by the small growth in population, at 8.1 percent.
The census results also give an indication as to where the growth regions are in Auckland. The city as a whole saw its population grow by 115,521 to just under 1.6 million (1,590,261) people, an increase of 11 percent. However, the biggest percentage growth was in Papakura (up 26 percent), and Rodney (up 21 percent).
In the past five years, there are 14,181 more people living in Hibiscus and Bays (up 16 percent), 11,535 more in Rodney (up 21 percent) and 9,171 in Upper Harbour (up 17 percent in five years).
13,845 more people have made the Howick local board area their home. The jammed southern motorway could be caused by the 13,428 more people living in Manurewa, 12,000 in Papakura or 9519 in Franklin.
The population growth appears to driving big house price increases in the city, with the median property value in Papakura up 80 percent since 2013, while in Rodney and Manukau the surge was 50 percent and in Franklin it was 48 percent.
“These fringe locations within the wider city continue to prove popular among many buyer groups, namely first home buyers and investors who have sought comparably more affordable housing stock. A large amount of new residential development is also a common theme within these localities which we can now see has fuelled genuine population growth into the areas,” Wilson says.
OneRoof figures and the 2018 Census results show tinier towns have fared the worst. Buller’s population dropped 10 percent to 9591 while Grey District’s fell by 1 percent. Rural districts with less than 1 percent average annual population growth include Waitomo, South Taranaki, Ruapehu, Westland, Waimate, Clutha, Southland and Gore.
“The low population growth raises some questions about the sustainability of recent house value growth in these locations, with Clutha, Ruapehu, Waimate and Southland all experiencing double digit annual growth in value," says Wilson.
“It should be noted that all of these areas are coming off a very low value base - all have a median property value of less than $400,000 – and that some of this growth seems to be fuelled by an influx of cheap capital from out-of-town buyers.”
The census results also give a snapshot of New Zealand home ownership. Of the 1,653,792 households counted, 51 percent (847,377) owned their homes with or without a mortgage and 32 percent (529,659) rented. Another 13 percent (219,522) had homes in family trusts.
Private landlords are still the backbone of New Zealand rental market, providing 83 percent of renters with homes. The majority (57 percent) of renters are paying between $200 and $500 per week.
And despite the growth in density in big cities leading to more intense housing types, still 84 percent of homes are single family homes. Another 14 percent of households report living in town houses (in census parlance, joined dwellings up to three storeys).
In 2018, Stats NZ counted just under 17,000 households living in apartments (four to ten storeys), although that figure will most certainly have grown in the 18 months since then as people moved into new developments. Heartening news for the tiny house on wheels movement, nearly 6000 dwellings were mobiles.
Less heartening was the snapshot of housing quality. Some 253,000 householders reported that their house had mould sometimes or always, and 319,000 said that their homes were always or sometimes damp (that’s 17 and 22 percent of households). Just under 61,000 reported that they had no heating used.
Only 14 percent of households did not have internet access, while land line ownership slipped to under 954,000 households or 63 percent (not surprisingly 92 percent have mobile).
