Could a tidal wave of new listings hit the market in spring?

The much-anticipated spring rush, which usually sees a boost in the number of properties on the market, will arrive this year but agents say savvy sellers should beat the competition and list now.

OneRoof data shows the spring "surge" arrived late last year and in a weakened state, with new residential listings in September up only 3% nationwide on the month before. An additional 10% hit the market in October and another 13% came in November, but the overall spring lift was just 16% - the equivalent of some 4000 extra listings on the June-Aug total.

The data shows the bump was smaller in Auckland (10%) but higher in Wellington (18%) and Canterbury (27%).

In a normal market there are usually between 30 to 40% more listings in spring compared to the winter months, and Bayleys head of insights Chris Farhi expects it to be no different this year.

"We don’t get a sense that it’s going to be a massive tidal wave of listings - just a typical spring increase.”

While there is a reasonable number of new appraisals happening, he says, some owners seem to be holding off taking the next step of listing their properties in case there’s a change in government after the general election in October.

With some political parties signalling changes in policies around property, such as reinstating interest deductibility rules around rental properties, that could encourage more investors back in the market and in turn encourage more sellers to list, he says.

In South Auckland, the spring rush has come early, says Ray White Manukau co-owner Tom Rawson, whose offices have seen a spike in both listings and transactions since the end of June.

“The investor market, the development market, they will be watching the election, but a lot of other people they’ve just got different pressures and the election is just something that is in the way and is coming. They are acting early.”

Rawson expects the increased level of listings to continue until the end of September when he thinks people will stop and wait to see what the election brings.

“You’ve got people sitting on the fence that think if one party gets in or the other party gets in it’s going to change things overnight, which me and you have been around long enough to know that nothing happens in the first few months regardless of who gets in.”

Ray White Manukau co-owner Tom Rawson says the spring rush has come early in South Auckland. Photo / Fiona Goodall

So that wait-and-see phase that could result in a softening in activity could continue until the start of next year, he adds.

Agents in other parts of the country are expecting a spring rush in listings and have already got some lined up and ready to go.

Tommy’s sales manager Tim Clark says their Wellington agents are currently carrying out a lot of appraisals, which in turn will result in some new listings.

“We will definitely see more come. I think the rush will be a little bit later purely because of the election, which is really close anyway.

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“The numbers will come up, what will be interesting to see is how much they come up, but we are definitely appraising more right at the moment.”

Clark’s advice to anyone thinking of selling is to get in early while stock levels are still extremely low and beat the rush.

“We are now seeing more buyers out there ready to make buying decisions more quickly than we have been for some time so now is a really good time to have your house on the market if it’s a good property.”

Harcourts national auction manager Shane Cortese says feedback from Harcourts offices around the country, including Hamilton and Tauranga, reveal that there will be more properties coming on the market in the next few months. He agrees with Clark that owners who put their houses on the market sooner – as part of an early spring campaign – rather than later will probably be the winners in the long-run.

“I always think there’s going to be a spring rush. I think this is the year people have gone ‘OK, it’s time to move on’. People are just saying now is the time to just get on with life.

Cortese says there may be a little bit of pullback this year because of the election, but if it becomes a forgone conclusion sooner rather than later then people will be ready to go.

Bayleys Christchurch agent Adam Heazlewood has plenty of new listings coming on the market in the next four to six weeks. Photo / Kai Schwörer

A significant lift in listings is also predicted in Christchurch.

Bayleys agent Steve Ellis says: “It’s a very strong listing period. Everyone waits until the flowers come out in their garden.

“All the signs are that we are going to have a relatively significant spring lift, but watch this space.”

His colleague Adam Heazlewood also has plenty of new listings coming on the market in the next four to six weeks, and says those waiting for the election result before putting their house up for sale could find that it backfires on them.

“I think at the moment when there’s a bit less choice, it’s working in the sellers’ favour really.”

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