Which bach spots are in line for a $1m price jump?

Buyers should look for improved roading and new subdivisions if they want to find the next Omaha, experts say.

Baches in the wealthy beach town on the northern fringe of Auckland are some of the most expensive in the country, and are tightly held, with agents telling OneRoof that properties that do come to market tend to sell to existing residents.

House prices in the town have rocketed 60% in the last five years, with the average property value jumping from $1.793 million to $2.863m.

Chris Farhi, head of insights at Bayleys, said trying to find the next Omaha before it took off wasn't an easy task for buyers.

Narrowing it down to potential beach spots was challenging, because demand depended on a matrix of factors, including real estate development trends, population growth, and local government planning.

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A coastal settlement’s proximity to large cities helped, said Farhi, but so did scenic beauty, infrastructure, local government planning rules, and the release of new residential and/or lifestyle sections.

In his opinion there were probably no “undiscovered” beauty spots in New Zealand, but there were areas that hadn’t “fired” price-wise yet.

While homes in Omaha, the Coromandel and Queenstown Lakes had seen huge price lifts over the past decade, there would be coastal settlements where that hadn’t happened but could, said Farhi.

Farhi said buyers should keep an eye on roading projects, especially those that make it easier to reach more coastal settlements.

“If you take the Auckland region, we've had a lot of investment into roading. The whole connection between Auckland and Waikato/Bay of Plenty has improved. Then going north you’ve had the same with the improvements for the Pūhoi Warkworth motorway,” he said, noting that Transmission Gully had had a similar effect in Wellington.

Bayles head of insights Chris Farhi says buyers should keep an eye on road projects. Photo / Fiona Goodall

“That's helping with these holiday spots, because it's extending the travel distance that people are happy to drive, which is extending their reach into some of the smaller townships.”

Farhi said Kiwis were generally open to driving two to three hours to their holiday home, but remote working opened up the possibility of destinations that are further afield. “People are a little bit more relaxed about travelling and spending more time on location than they might have otherwise if they had to get back to work on a Monday.”

Farhi's own watch-list includes Raglan, in Waikato, and coastal locations in Marlborough, Nelson, and Tasman.

James Wilson, operations manager at QV, agreed with Farhi on roading infrastructure being a big driver of value in "under the radar" locations, but cites new-build activity as having even bigger influence on established beach towns like Matarangi, in Coromandel, which has seen a flurry of new sections, off-the-plan developments and new-build homes hit the market for sale.

“We're seeing a change in demographics and property types in established beach towns. For example, Matarangi has seen more affordable, modern homes within walking distance of the beach. We’re seeing that right across the North Island.”

Matarangi, in the Coromandel, has benefitted from new-build developments. Photo / Getty Images

Bryan Thomson, chief executive at Harcourts, said proximity to major centres was important. “Whether it’s a crib in the bottom of the South Island, or a bach in other places, if you’re looking for a market that consistently out-performs others, being within a two hour drive from a major metropolitan centre is important,” he said.

“I think there are so many fantastic places around the beaches north of Auckland, you can really take your pick. Demand is not going to lessen with the predictions for future population growth in Auckland.”

Better roading infrastructure had brought places like Taupo, Rotorua and Tauranga closer to Auckland, he said.

Thomson wasn’t willing to predict specific locations, arguing that buyers often wanted to buy where they spent their holidays in their youth. For some people that meant somewhere with a great harbour, good boat ramp, golf course and access to a highly developed village with a cinema and restaurants. For others it was the back of beyond. In the South Island that might be the West Coast of the South Island or Golden Bay, for example, said Thomson.

“Or it might mean Lake Brunner or central Benmore If you go to the South Island. There will be intergenerational ownership of properties at Lake Brunner.” Te Anau was another underrated holiday location, he said . “It would probably be one of the most underrated places in the world.”

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