Ashley Church: Could a National Government fix the housing market?

COMMENT: If you’ve been watching the trend of the various political polls for the past six months, you’ll know that there’s a very strong likelihood that we will see a change of government by 2024 at the latest. While each poll differs in the picture it paints, the trend is almost all in one direction, with the most recent Roy Morgan poll showing that Nationals healthy lead over Labour is now looking like it will turn into a yawning chasm.

Yes, I know I’ve incorrectly called a National win before, back in early 2020 – but I don’t think that anyone could have foreseen Covid and how much it would upend obvious election results throughout the world in that year – and the strong support that Labour achieved at the ballot box later that year has now all but evaporated.

So why the turnaround? Certainly some of it is down to the relative stability provided by Nationals leader Christopher Luxon after the disastrous leaderships of Todd Muller and Judith Collins (which contributed to the Labour win in 2020). But, far and away, the biggest factor in the change in voting sentiment is the performance of the Government itself. A near total inability to deliver on promises, a fast and loose approach with the truth, the pursuit of an extreme social agenda and a frivolous approach to government spending have all combined to reverse what was once a healthy lead in the polls.

So, assuming National, with the support of Act, is able to form a Government in 2024, what would be different? Most of the political heavyweights who provided stability during the Key/English era have since retired and, in many respects, we’re facing a party that is almost as green and inexperienced as Labour was in 2017. Do they really have what it takes to bring the country back from the brink?

And what about the housing market? Does National show any signs of understanding that better than Labour? Could they fix it?

To be honest, the signals are mixed. Certainly they made a big step in the right direction with their announcement, back in March that, if elected, they would reverse the full suite of pernicious property tax measures introduced by Labour, including the Bright Line test extensions beyond the original two years, and the removal of interest deductibility on rentals.

Ashley Church: “Most of the political heavyweights who provided stability during the Key/English era have since retired.” Photo / Ted Baghurst

But these pledges were introduced by then Finance spokesman, Simon Bridges, who has now retired from Parliament – and there have been more recent suggestions that housing policy might change at the whim of a new finance or housing spokesman.

And who happens to hold these roles? None other than Nicola Willis and Christopher Bishop – the two MPs who have been most instrumental in moving National to the left on social issues and who are on record as believing that Nationals best chance of winning in 2024 is to adopt a ‘Labour lite’ approach where they continue Labours social agenda, but not quite as aggressively. This approach might make short-term tactical sense – but at what cost to the soul of the National Party?

But what about housing? Does Bishop have what it takes to move the needle in that portfolio? The indications, to date, are underwhelming. My only direct interaction with Bishop – which took place through a Facebook conversation a year or two ago – revealed a man who is big on cliches, slogans and virtue signalling, but extremely light on any real understanding of how the property market works. Sadly, I’ve seen nothing since then which would give me confidence that his understanding has improved and the likelihood is that we’ll see more of the same reactionary nonsense from National, on housing, that we’ve seen from Labour.

The solutions to the problems facing the housing market are still encapsulated in the open letter that I wrote to the Prime Minister back in June of 2021: that getting young people into their first home should be the primary focus of any Government; that Governments can’t control house prices and shouldn’t try (the market will find its own equilibrium at any given point in time); that capital growth is a good thing and that the significant majority of kiwis have benefitted from it; that the major barrier to buying a home is the deposit; and that Government should focus on aspirational housing policies rather than casting around to punish those who have taken responsibility for their own future.

As I did with Ardern, I would happily offer my help to the Nats if they were serious about making a difference, but that would require a repudiation of their current approach to housing and a commitment to put aside their addiction to the support of those on the left who parrot glib solutions and meaningless slogans.

As we’ve seen, with Labour – being in government is one thing. Making a difference is quite another.

- Ashley Church is a property commentator for OneRoof.co.nz. Email him at [email protected]