Farmers will need to be agile managers to meet the challenges presented by climate change, says a Westpac NZ and Lincoln University report.
The report says a range of existing management options are already available to assist farmers in strengthening the physical resilience of their farming systems and to help them meet NZ's 2030 agriculture climate targets, with only a few requiring an initial investment of capital.
Westpac NZ's head of agribusiness Tim Henshaw said the report was designed to provide farmers and growers with impartial information about the way climate change might affect their location and type of production, and how they can respond.
"However, applying these options more widely will require uptake of best-practice farm management," Henshaw said. "This may require a significant uplift in skills and training to ensure a greater number of farmers have sufficient expertise to both reduce emissions and adapt to climate change."
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The Westpac NZ Agribusiness Climate Change Report explores credible case studies, such as the effect of drought on a dairy farmer in Canterbury, and the impact of warming winters on kiwifruit growers in Bay of Plenty.
Henshaw said there was no single "off-the-shelf" solution, the optimal response would be different for every producer.
Farmers would need to consider what expertise they had to adapt their operations, and plan to fill any gaps. Opportunities might arise for producers who adapted quickly.
"In some cases, land may become suitable for different types of production that were not previously viable.
"Other commercial opportunities may arise if individual producers or the wider NZ industry take a leadership position on tackling transition risks like changing consumer preferences and trade challenges."
The report assesses the way destocking, combined with improved productivity, can help both reduce emissions and maintain profitability.
"Many initiatives should be regarded as win-win, as they will have side benefits such as improving soil health or biodiversity."
The report's lead author, Lincoln University Professor Anita Wreford, said adaptation would be crucial.
"There are very useful actions farmers should consider in the short and medium-terms.
"However, if temperatures rise significantly, there will come a time at which current adaptations are no longer effective.
"That's one of the many reasons it's critical every effort is made to avoid as much warming as possible."
Wreford said there was scope for further research into the enduring effectiveness of adaptation practices under a changing climate.
"Because astute land management will be critical in responding to climate change, there is also a need to increase training of rural professionals to support farmers and growers."
Earlier this year, Westpac launched a pilot of its new sustainable agribusiness loans with a small group of farming customers. The bank plans to make the loan available in 2023.
Most of the adaptations identified in the report are based on changes to the management of the system. Opportunities could arise from the transition to low-carbon agriculture, including reduced on-farm production costs, increased productivity through climate-smart techniques such as precision agriculture, and increased farm profitability through diversification of farming systems.
"Pastoral farming systems are likely to experience increased pasture growth, however, pests and disease may also worsen; farmers and growers may also be less able to rely on irrigation to cope with water variability and drought," the report said.
Greenhouse-gas mitigation options already available include feed, pasture, stock and effluent management for pastoral producers, as well as crop and soil management and technology investment for all sectors.
These types of changes can all get close to, or achieve, NZ's 2030 methane reduction target of 10 per cent below 2017 levels. However, achieving reductions above that will require a combination of improved technologies and land-use change, the report said.
