Andrew Barnes' comments in his recent column on the future of New Zealand agriculture - ‘Food tech threatens our cash cow' - follow a well-worn path.
He predicts a worrying future for New Zealand's food and fibres sector with lab-produced meat and plant-based protein driving consumers away from natural red meat and milk.
He points to the rise of vegans and vegetarians, the growth of milk substitutes, and the billions of dollars being ploughed into animal-free products such as mozzarella.
I want to be clear: this innovation and investment is incredibly exciting. Consumers have never enjoyed such a range of nutritious food - whether that's fake meat, red kiwifruit or dairy milk alternatives. As New Zealand's Special Agricultural Trade Envoy, I sampled many different foods in all four corners of the globe and this trend for new food development will continue.
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The reality for New Zealand is that there is a place, and more importantly demand, for both natural protein and the range of alternatives on offer. New Zealand's food and fibres sector has good insight into the progress of new competitors and in fact has raised its game to ensure it stays ahead of the pack.
Industry assurance and promotional programmes - such as Taste Pure Nature, NZ Farm Assurance Plus, Synlait's Lead with Pride, and Fonterra's Trusted Goodness - are just a few examples.
Market insights in a report by Beef + Lamb NZ in 2018 concluded that alternative proteins were likely to become a major competitor to some of New Zealand's red-meat products and the sector must provide a clear strategy to remain relevant in the minds of consumers.
The study found a number of forces such as environmental concerns and the place of meat in a modern diet were converging and driving governments, investors and consumers to look for alternatives to red meat.
But, encouragingly, the research also revealed an untapped demand for naturally raised, grass-fed, hormone-free and antibiotic-free red meat, with consumers prepared to pay a premium for such products.
Those same forces driving the significant investment and demand for manufacturing alternative proteins, including concerns about industrial farming, health and the environment, offer us a chance to differentiate New Zealand red-meat products internationally.
This is already occurring in markets such as North America, and in particular states like California, where many affluent consumers are choosing grass-fed red meat over grain-fed alternatives, helped with promotional programmes to educate people with relevant facts and information.
My view is that, ultimately, the values that support the foundation of our naturally produced, high-quality food will carry the sector for some time. The food and fibre sector continues to evolve and adopt new technologies that will ensure we stay at the forefront of this opportunity.
The sector is not standing still - it's moving fast to ensure it retains its place at the top of the global food order.
The industry is listening to what is important to global consumers, doing a lot of work to substantiate its environmental and health credentials and investing in addressing any concerns and issues.
The future is bright. According to the Ministry for Primary Industries, export revenue for the food and fibre sector is forecast to hit a record $50.8 billion in the year to 30 June 2022, a 6per cent increase over the previous year.
New Zealand is expecting growth in most sectors where alternatives exist, with the value of the red-meat sector continuing to rise 6per cent to $11.1b for the year to June 2022.
Dairy sector exports are forecast to reached $20.9b, a 10per cent increase over the same period, with the horticulture and wine sector also rising 5per cent to $6.9b.
In the absence of tourism, the importance of New Zealand's food and fibre sector exports cannot be underestimated in our post-Covid 19 recovery.
The food and fibre sector in New Zealand is providing well-paid jobs, adding value to exports, and securing better returns by also promoting the values of the producers that is such an important part of the story. This a growth story, not a decline story, and something all Kiwis should celebrate with pride.
In this day and age, it's important we don't instinctively leap to binary arguments where the adoption of one system or idea leads to the demise of others. Global consumers both now and into the future will embrace a range of proteins - natural and alternative and New Zealand is well placed to meet these opportunities. - Mike Petersen.
Mike Petersen is a former NZ Special Agricultural Trade Envoy, former chairman of Beef + Lamb NZ, chairman of the Food and Fibre Leaders' Forum and a Hawke's Bay sheep and beef farmer.
