House prices vs dating
There has been a lot of housing market data to unpack this week, including REINZ’s house sales stats for January and the Reserve Bank’s revised house price forecast for 2025, but the one I want to look at first is the dating one from Ray White’s research team.
It might be because MAFS is on and getting spicy, or that perennial singleton Bridget Jones is back on the big screen, but this caught my eye and made me think about the housing market differently.
Ray White senior data analyst Atom Go Tian matched population stats with house prices and found the most attractive regions and cities for single men and single women seeking connections with members of the opposite sex.
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He found that the gender ratio tips in favour of women seeking male partners in four of New Zealand’s 16 regions – Canterbury, Marlborough, Tasman and Southland. Canterbury is the strongest prospect with 110 single men for every 100 single women.
Out of the four, it also enjoyed the strongest house price growth, both annually and over the last five years, and prices are still relatively affordable, so even if you don’t find love, you will have a warm glowing feeling from owning property there (the region also has a real-life Ark for sale so good for those worried about climate change as well as hooking up).
Gisborne was the worst region for single straight women, but not for those looking for property love. The median price for the region was $775,000, up nearly 30% annually. Single straight women on a budget could take a gamble with West Coast: its median price is the country’s lowest at $450,000 but there are only 98 single men for every 100 single women. Owning your own house could make the difference there.
Atom found Christchurch was the best city for single straight women – it has 109 single men for every 100 single women – and Tauranga the worst (a lot of retirees there as well). Atom’s research also highlighted the challenge of being a single first-home buyer in Auckland – regardless of gender or sexual orientation. The median sale price in the city is $1.115 million, which doesn’t leave much left in the bank for spending on dates.
Interest rates, house sales, and house price forecasts
We were all expecting the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut the Official Cash Rate by 50 basis points to 3.75% this week and Governor Adrian Orr didn’t disappoint. What was a surprise, though, were the cash rate and house price forecasts contained in the RBNZ’s Monetary Policy Statement.
Let’s start with the fun stuff. The RBNZ is happy with the direction of travel on inflation and believes there is scope for the cash rate to drop to around 3% by the end of 2025 instead of the end of 2026 as it had previously forecast. The big banks will likely drop their mortgage rates further as a result – which is good news for those refixing or buying right now.
Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr lowered the OCR to 3.75% this week. Photo / Getty Images
However, tucked away in the MPS was some unwelcome news for homeowners and vendors (although not buyers). The RBNZ has cut house price growth expectations from 7.1% to 3.8% for 2025, further emphasising the belief that the market recovery this year will be modest.
Saying that, the latest REINZ figures show January house sales nationwide were up 17% annually (and up 23% outside of Auckland). The sweet spot appears to be houses in the sub-$1m price bracket, which are more numerous outside of Auckland and tend to align with first-home buyer budgets. The volume and percentage of sales between $500,000 and $999,999 in January grew year-on-year, so there is hope for vendors.
Auctions ramp up
The auction calendar started earlier this year, with a clutch of mega-auctions at the end of January. We’ve now had a good few weeks of auction results to get our teeth into and by and large they reflect the REINZ stats for January. Ray White’s clearance rate is above 50%, with an average of 2.3 bidders per auction.
While the middle of the market appears to be where the action is, I have noticed some standout auction sales in Auckland that have resulted in prices of $3m or more.
A four-bedroom home on Peary Road, in Auckland’s Mount Eden, sold for $3.65m under the hammer - $400,000 above RV. Photo / Supplied
A former Home of the Year winner on Schofield Street, in Auckland’s Grey Lynn, sold for $5.5m at auction. Photo / Supplied
This week a four-bedroom architecturally-designed home on Peary Road, in Mount Eden, got $3.65m under the hammer – $400,000 above RV and more than $3m above what the vendors paid for the land 20-plus years ago. The property, marketed by Ray White Mt Eden agent Rachel Berry, had five registered bidders on the day, two of whom put their hands up.
Other big sales include the $5.5m Bayleys agent Robyn Clark got for an award-winning home on Schofield Street, in Grey Lynn, and the $3.2m Barfoot & Thompson’s Ling Zhu got for a new-build on Kohia Terrace, in Epsom.
There is big money out there in auction land, but it tends to be targeting well-designed, move-in-ready homes.
Aussie shuts the door on foreign buyers
Just as the door to foreign buyers appears to be opening in New Zealand, it is closing in Australia. The Australian Government is barring foreign residents from buying existing homes for two years, in a bid to tackle the country’s housing crisis – a thorny issue for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in an election year. The policy, which applies from April 1, is a carbon-copy of a plan put forward last year by Albanese’s election rival, Liberal leader Peter Dutton, which highlights the gap between the right-leaning parties in New Zealand and Australia on the economy and housing.
The ban won’t affect Kiwi citizens or permanent Australian residents. OneRoof has asked the Australian Taxation Office if the ban extends to permanent Kiwi residents but had not heard back by the time this column was published.
Bayleys’ man in Sydney pays top price for penthouse
McGrath CEO John McGrath has been a huge force in Sydney’s housing market for more than 20 years. Last year his agency – one of the biggest in Australia – was bought by global property consultancy Knight Frank and New Zealand’s Bayleys Real Estate.
McGrath hit the real estate headlines last week when he bought a luxury penthouse in Sydney’s inner west for A$4.12m for himself and his two sausage dogs.
- Owen Vaughan is editor of OneRoof.co.nz. You can contact him with any property tips or story ideas at owen.vaughan@nzme.co.nz
