Two old towns and clutch of new suburbs are tipped by housing market experts as the ones to watch in 2021.
The predictions, by Colliers International, will be invaluable to first home buyers looking to get ahead of the competition as low interest rates continues to fuel a red-hot housing market.
Pete Evans, Colliers’ national director of residential projects, says the 10 suburbs on the list reflect the big shift in Kiwi attitudes to work and home life post-Covid-19.
He expects lifestyle suburbs will be in higher demand this year.
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“Covid has not only fuelled the demand for residential homes but has changed what the market wants,” Evans said.
“While nine out of ten of the top picks are in Auckland, as the engine room of New Zealand’s economy, Tauranga city is also one to watch.
“Local travel will remain strong and Tauranga’s robust economy and the lifestyle it offers mean it ticks a lot of boxes for residents and ensures future growth.”
The picks by Evans and fellow Colliers’ Residential Projects director Jeff Davidson include several suburbs on Auckland’s fringe: Papatoetoe, in South Auckland, and Warkworth, on Auckland's northern boundary, as well new development hotspots Millwater and Long Bay.
Evans and Davidson drew on development and other data to find the best areas for buying property in the year ahead. The selection process included finding suburbs with affordable housing - which Evans told OneRoof is in the $700,000 to $900,000 price bracket - and with a high percentage of new dwellings being built.
The NX2 roading project between Puhoi and Warkworth will make the north Auckland town more attractive. Photo / Supplied
Evans said that the uptick in remote working as a result of the Covid-19 lockdown had made city fringe suburbs a more viable option.
“Despite what we say about public transport, road works are still happening and vehicles are still a driving force on where people live,” Evans said.
Davidson added: “The boundaries [of the city] are moving in part because of affordability.
The Fabric development is part of Onehunga's regeneration. Photo / Supplied
“There is a whole group of buyers now who are looking for more land. In places like Millwater and Long Bay, you can get more land for the money.
“People realise that there are more employment opportunities in the north, and some city businesses are looking at growth around Silverdale. There’s a new population saying, ‘I don’t need to go into the city to get my entertainment or work.’
“If you look at international cities, even Sydney, many people are saying, ‘We’ve got more than enough amenity to keep us here.’”
Davidson said now was the time to buy while improvements such as extended rapid bus links or new highways were still in the works.
Kotuitui is a new neighbourhood of two and three bedroom homes in central Manukau. Photo / Supplied
“If you wait until it is all done, it will be a lot more expensive,” he said, adding that this was why Warkworth was on the list now, not in mid-2022 when the motorway extension is set to open.
“There’ll be a rush of first movers who get the advantage.”
Kenderdine Square in Papatoetoe has apartments and terrace homes from $565,000 to $750,000. Photo / Supplied
The 10 housing markets to watch
1. Manukau
Auckland Council development agency Panuku has invested in 600ha of land in central Manukau and Wiri and there are plans for a new integrated rail and bus station, Manukau Institute of Technology’s new trade learning centre and a walkable main street. Two hundred new homes have been completed and a further 200 are in the works.
2. Papatoetoe
Auckland Council’s 2.5ha plans include a revitalised mall and supermarket, and the opening of the new train station and Puhinui transport interchange. “With recent new housing offering incredible value for money at prices well below comparative locations, Papatoetoe is an ideal location for first home buyers, investors and down-sizers,” Evans said.
3. Mt Roskill
The regeneration of Mt Roskill South is well underway with thousands of new homes under construction and around 10,000 new homes planned over the next 10 years, led by Kainga Ora. “Mount Roskill is definitely a suburb to watch for those looking for affordability and gain, while retaining the character of an established suburb and central location,” Evans said.
Auckland Transport's upgrade of Papatoetoe's Puhinui Station to a major bus and train interchange will boost the suburb. Photo / Supplied
4. Onehunga
Colliers tips Onehunga for exponential growth, helped by a $140 million Panuku-led regeneration project, new homes, better transport and development of the town centre and wharf. New developments include 160 new apartments at Fabric of Onehunga, 88 apartments under construction at Beachcroft and over 100 new apartments planned on the site of a former working man’s club.
5. New Lynn
The already lively hub of west Auckland, New Lynn will continue to benefit from Auckland Council plans to make it home to 20,000 residents and 14,000 workers by 2030. In the works are upgrades to Merchant Quarter, more cycling-friendly upgrades and new residential developments near the transit centre.
6. Albany
The Auckland 2050 plan expects Albany to be one of the North Shore’s biggest hubs for living, employment and entertainment. Evans said the suburb was a good location for investors. “New housing stock will mean that Albany will always attract strong interest from tenants.”
7. Long Bay
Covid-19's impact on how and where people work brings the lifestyle suburb into the list. “Every aspect of the suburb’s development has been considered including a significant number of reserves and parks to provide high-quality community areas,” Evans said, adding that new terrace homes and apartments would provide another price point for the suburb.
8. Millwater
The rapidly growing Hibiscus Coast suburb has bush and sea views, is close to amenities and offers quick motorway access to Auckland. “A more diverse mix of new housing in the area, including stand-alone homes, terraces and apartments, will attract more first home buyers, young and older families, professionals and retirees,” Evans said.
9. Warkworth
Warkworth, just 45 minutes from Auckland, is picked to grow to by 20,000 people over the next 30 years. The commercial centre servicing the desirable communities of Matakana and nearby beaches still has a small-town vibe, but the completion of the SH1 works will be an important boost for development.
10. Tauranga
Colliers Tauranga director Grant White said the city one of the fastest growing residential areas in New Zealand, with diversified businesses and migration from Auckland and expats helping a strong economy withstand the effects of Covid.
- This content was created in partnership with Kāinga Ora
