The Reserve Bank has kept the Official Cash Rate at a record low of 1.75 per cent.

It's now been two years since the last move.

The Reserve said it expects the rate to stay on hold until 2020 but has removed any explicit reference to a rate cut.

The previous two statements had been very clear that the next move for rates could be "up or down".

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It was a subtle wording change from Governor Adrian Orr that may be interpreted as a more positive stance.

However, he also warned of that there were both "upside and downside" risks to growth and inflation projections.

"The pick-up in GDP growth in the June quarter was partly due to temporary factors, and business surveys continue to suggest growth will be soft in the near term," Orr said in his monetary policy statement.

"Employment is around its maximum sustainable level. However, core consumer price inflation remains below our 2 per cent target mid-point, necessitating continued supportive monetary policy.

"We will keep the OCR at an expansionary level for a considerable period to contribute to maximising sustainable employment, and maintaining low and stable inflation."

The kiwi dollar - which surged yesterday on strong jobs data - was largely unchanged, trading at around US67.84c

The Reserve Bank is charged with keeping annual inflation between 1 per cent and 3 per cent with a focus on the 2 per cent mid-point, and with supporting maximum levels of sustainable employment within the economy.

Official statistics yesterday showed unemployment at a decade-low 3.9 per cent.

Orr noted that petrol prices had pushed inflation up but said it would look through the short term spike.

"Higher fuel prices are boosting near-term headline inflation. We will look through this volatility as appropriate. Our projection assumes firms have limited pass through of higher costs into generalised consumer prices, and that longer-term inflation expectations remain anchored at our target."

Kelvin Davidson, senior researcher at CoreLogic NZ, said: "The drop in the unemployment rate has now seemingly taken a near term rate cut off the table.

"Even so, all of this points to a benign environment for borrowers. The Reserve’s expectation that the OCR will be unchanged until late 2020 (or even slightly into 2021) suggests that domestic mortgage rates will also stay low and stable, particularly given that banks are still fighting hard to attract the best borrowers in the current low-turnover property market.

"However, it’s always worth keeping an eye on the overseas money markets, and the risk that higher offshore borrowing costs flow through to NZ rates over the next 6-12 months can’t be ruled out.

"It remains to be seen if anything new or additional comes out of the 10am media conference, for example perhaps some extra guidance around the Reserve’s plans for the LVR speed limits. A relaxation of the rules could help to stimulate property sales activity as we move into 2019, but they’ve already been successful in helping to engineer an 'orderly slowdown', so the Reserve will of course be wary of kick-starting another bounce in house prices."


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