ANALYSIS: This past week I have conducted my monthly survey of real estate agents located all around the country and here are some of the main results at the national and Auckland levels. First, let’s look at FOMO – the fear of missing out. I produce the only measure of this often much talked about gauge for New Zealand and the latest result is 34% of agents saying buyers are displaying FOMO. For Auckland the reading is 44%. Three months ago these readings respectively were 7% and 8%. The jump has been swift.
The top reading is Wellington at 47%, assisted no doubt by the over 40% drop in the number of properties on the market for sale over the past 11 months. Auckland stocks are about 11% down from their peak.
When FOMO rises this tells us buyers are feeling more motivated to make a purchase. First home buyers certainly are with a net 58% of agents nationwide and 53% in Auckland saying they are seeing more young buyers. This section of the market has been quite active since February.
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In contrast, nationwide a net 13% of agents still say they are seeing fewer investors. But interestingly, in Auckland this reading is only 1%.
Read more:
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The opposite of FOMO is FOOP – fear of over-paying. Fewer and fewer agents say that potential buyers are worried about making a purchase then watching prices go lower. Three months ago 68% of agents nationwide said buyers were displaying FOOP. Auckland was also 68%. Now, the NZ-wide reading is 29% and Auckland sits at only 20%.
For the first time since November 2021 FOMO is greater than FOOP. There is a near one for one correlation between changes in the FOMO less FOOP gap and agent observations of prices rising in their location. Therefore this turnaround in FOMO and FOOP tells us what is happening, or perhaps more accurately about to happen, with prices.
In fact nationwide a net 9% of agents now say prices are rising in their area. Three months ago a net 58% said they were falling. Auckland has shifted to a net 17% seeing prices going up versus a net 57% seeing prices fall three months ago.
Independent economist Tony Alexander: “The potential benefit to a buyer of holding back and waiting to see what happens is not particularly strong.” Photo / Fiona Goodall
That is probably enough numbers for this week. Suffice to say what they show is a housing market turning around. However, we cannot reasonably tell from the results how fast prices are going to rise in the next three to four years, when they will peak, and how much higher they will be when that next cyclical peak comes along.
All we can reasonably say is the potential benefit to a buyer of holding back and waiting to see what happens is not particularly strong. That doesn’t mean all potential buyers should rush into the market right away. Many can’t because with bank stress test mortgage rates around 9% they cannot meet maximum debt servicing to income ratios to qualify for a mortgage.
There is also the matter of finding something suitable to buy, with the trend in listings downwards.
- Tony Alexander is an independent economics commentator. Additional commentary from him can be found at www.tonyalexander.nz
